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The end of the pandemic in Spain would be around September 9, according to a study

Madrid / The coronavirus pandemic would end “theoretically” in Spain by September 9, according to a predictive model from a Singapore university based on “the current trend of cases”, which considers that 99% of cases could have occurred around May 22.

The Singapore University of Technology and Design has launched a predictive model based on the current trend of cases, according to which, 97% of cases could have been reached by May 7, according to the analysis of the data to date of May 2.

The SIR (susceptible-infected recovered) model is performed with daily updated data from different countries to estimate the pandemic life cycle curves and the theoretical completion dates, explains the educational center on its website.

Because the predictions are continually updated with the latest data, the predictions are “expected” to change as a result of changes in the scenarios over time.

Furthermore, he warns that the model and the data are inaccurate for the complex, changing and heterogeneous realities of the different countries, so the predictions must be taken with “caution”.

And he emphasizes that “excess optimism based on some expected end dates is dangerous, because it can relax our discipline and controls,” which can change the course of the virus and infection.

World evolution of COVID-19

Regarding world evolution, the model sets the theoretical end of the pandemic by COVID-19 towards December 14, although by June 21, 99% of cases would have already been registered.

For other countries, the predictive model sets the end of the pandemic in Italy towards September 10 and the United Kingdom on the 8th of that month; while that moment would arrive in France on August 8 and in Germany on August 14 of that month.

The United States should wait until October 1 and Brazil until October 21 of that month; in the case of Mexico that end would come around September 19, adds the model. (May 6, 2020, EFE / PracticaEspañol)

(Automatic translation)

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Question 1
En el texto se dice que...  
una universidad de Singapur realizó un estudio sobre cuándo se originó la pandemia del COVID-19.
se ha realizado un estudio sobre el final de la pandemia del COVID-19.
una universidad de Singapur realizará un estudio sobre cuándo terminará la pandemia del COVID-19.
Question 2
Según este estudio...  
se prevé que el fin de la pandemia en España sea a principios del próximo mes de septiembre.
se descarta por completo que el fin de la pandemia en España sea el próximo 9 de septiembre.
el fin de la pandemia en España no será hasta septiembre del próximo año.
Question 3
En el texto se dice que...
los expertos no creen que se retrase ese final si los controles del COVID-19 se relajan.
los expertos afirman que esa predicción cambiaría si los escenarios también cambian.
los expertos descartan que pueda haber algún error en esa predicción.
Question 4
Sobre el final de la pandemia se dice que...  
sería antes en EE.UU. que en Reino Unido.
también sería a principios del próximo mes de septiembre en Italia y Reino Unido.
sería a finales de este año en Francia y Alemania.
Question 5
En el vídeo se ve que...    
hay personas trabajando en una empresa donde se fabrican mascarillas.
ya se celebran partidos de béisbol con público en los estadios.
no hay nadie que esté rezando.
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